Earth System Risk Analysis Section

We assess the global-scale risks of climate change impacts and the side-effects of climate change countermeasures, mainly based on computer simulations. We expect that our outcomes will inform policy-makers.




Assessment of methane emissions from oil, gas and coal sectors across inventories and atmospheric inversions
Tibrewal, K., Ciais, P., Saunois, M., Martinez, A., Lin, X., Thanwerdas, J., Deng, Z., Chevallier, F., Giron, C., Albergel, C., Tanaka, K., Patra, P., Tsuruta, A., Zheng, B., Belikov, D., Niwa, Y., Janardanan, R., Maksyutov, S., Segers, A., Tzompa-Sosa, Z. A., Bousquet, P., & Sciare, J.
Communications Earth & Environment, 5:26 (2024)
How climate change may shift power demand in Japan: insights from data-driven analysis
Gurriaran, L., Tanaka, K., Takahashi,K., & Ciais, P.
Journal of Environmental Management, 345, 118799 (2023)
Warming-Induced Increase in Power Demand and CO2 Emissions in Qatar and the Middle East
Gurriaran, L., Tanaka, K., Bayram, S. I., Proestos, Y., Lelieveld, J., & Ciais, P.
Journal of Cleaner Production, 382, 135359 (2023)
Assessing carbon cycle projections from complex and simple models under SSP scenarios
Melnikova, I., Ciais, P., Boucher, O., & Tanaka, K.
Climatic Change 176, 168 (2023)
Important distinctiveness of SSP3–7.0 for use in impact assessments
Shiogama, H., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Hayashi, M., Hirabayashi, Y., Ogura, T., Iizumi, T., Takahashi, K., & Takemura, T.,
Nature Climate Change, 13, 1276–1278 (2023)
Anthropogenic warming induced intensification of summer monsoon frontal precipitation over East Asia
Moon, S., Utsumi, N., Jeong, J.-H., Yoon, J.-H., Wang, S.-Y. S., Shiogama, H., & Kim, H.
Science Advances, 9, 47 (2023)
Increasing heavy rainfall events and associated excessive soil water threaten a protein-source legume in dry environments of West Africa
Iizumi, T., Iseki, K., Ikazaki, K., Sakai, T., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., & Batieno, B. J.
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (2023)
MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses
Shiogama, H., Tatebe, H., Hayashi, M., Abe, M., Arai, M., Koyama, H., Imada, Y., Kosaka, Y., Ogura, T., & Watanabe, M.
Earth System Dynamics, 14, 6, 1107–1124 (2023)
SolarEV City Concept for Paris
Deroubaix, P., Kobashi, T., Gurriaran, L., Benkhelifa, F., Ciais, P., & Tanaka, K.
Applied Energy, 350, 121762 (2023)
Relative benefits of allocating land to bioenergy crops and forests vary by region
Melnikova, I., Ciais, P., Tanaka, K., Vuichard, N., & Boucher, O
Communications Earth & Environment, 4:230 (2023)
Accelerating the energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind in China
Wang, Y., Wang, R., Tanaka, K., Ciais, P., Penuelas, J., Balkanski, Y., Sardans, J., Hauglustaine, D., Liu, W., Xing, X., Li, J., Xu, S., Xiong, Y., Yang, R., Cao, J., Chen, J., Wang, L., Tang, X., & Zhang, Z.
Nature, 619, 761–767 (2023)
Irrigation in the Earth system
McDermid, S., Nocco, M., Lawston-Parker, P., Keune, J., Pokhrel, Y., Jain, M., Jägermeyr, J., Brocca, L., Massari, C., Jones, A. D., Vahmani, P., Thiery, W., Yao, Y., Bell, A., Chen, L., Dorigo, W., Hanasaki, N., Jasechko, S., Lo, M.-H., Mahmood, R., Mishra, V., Mueller, N. D., Niyogi, D., Rabin, S. S., Sloat, L., Wada, Y., Zappa, L., Chen, F., Cook, B. I., Kim, H., Lombardozzi, D., Polcher, J., Ryu, D., Santanello, J., Satoh, Y., Seneviratne, S., Singh, D., & Yokohata, T.
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (2023)
Comparable biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks on warming from tropical moist forest degradation
Zhu, L., Li, W., Ciais, P., He, J., Cescatti, A., Santoro, M., Tanaka, K., Cartus, O., Zhao, Z., Xu, Y., Sun, M., & Wang, J.
Nature Geoscience, 16, 244–249 (2023)
Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members
Akiyoshi, H., Kadowaki, M., Yamashita, Y., & Nagatomo, T.
Scientific Reports, 13: 320 (2023)
Uncertainty constraints on economic impact assessments of climate change simulated by an impact emulator
Shiogama, H., Takakura, J., & Takahashi, K.
Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 124028 (2022)
Enhancement of river flooding due to global warming
Alifu, H., Hirabayashi, Y., Imada, Y., & Shiogama, H.
Scientific Reports, 12, 20687 (2022)
Warming-induced increase in power demand and CO2 emissions in Qatar and the Middle East
Gurriaran, L., Tanaka, K., Bayram, I. S., Proestos, Y., Lelieveld, J., & Ciais, P.
Journal of Cleaner Production
Identifying crucial emission sources under low forcing scenarios by a comprehensive attribution analysis
Su, X., Tachiiri, K., Tanaka, K., Watanabe, M., & Kawamiya, M.
One Earth 5, 1–13 (2022)
East Asian heatwaves driven by Arctic-Siberian warming
Kim, J.-H., Kim, S.-J., Kim, J.-H., Hayashi, M., & Kim, M.-K.
Scientific Reports, 12:18025 (2022)
Paris Agreement requires substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond COVID-19 public stimulus packages
Tanaka, K., Azar, C., Boucher, O., Ciais, P., Gaucher, Y., & Johansson, D. J. A.
Climatic Change, 172, 1 (2022)
Global patterns of daily CO2 emission reductions in the first year of COVID-19
Liu, Z., Deng, Z., Ciais, P., Tan, L., Zhu, B., Davis, S. J., Andrew, A., Boucher, O., Arous, S. B., Canadel, P., Dou, X., Friedlingstein, P., Gentine, P., Guo, R., Hong, C., Jackson, R. B., Kammen, D. M., Ke, P., Le Quere, C., Monica, C., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Peters, G., Tanaka, K., Wang, Y., Zheng, B., Zhong, H., Sun, T., & Schellnhuber, H. J.
Nature Geoscience, 15, 615–620 (2022)
The Contribution of Climate Change to Increasing Extreme Ocean Warming around Japan
Hayashi, M., Shiogama, H., & Ogura, T.
Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100785 (2022)
Evaluating China’s Role in Achieving the 1.5℃ Target of the Paris Agreement
Xiong, W., Tanaka, K., Ciais, P., & Yan, L.
Energies, 15 (16):6002 (2022)
Emerging Themes and Future Directions of Multi-Sector Nexus Research and Implementation
Khan, Z., Abraham, E., Aggarwal, S., Khan, M. A., Arguello, R., Babbar-Sebens, M., Bereslawski, J. L., Bielicki, J. M., Campana, P. E., Carrazzone, M. E. S., Castanier, H., Chang, F.-J., Collins, P., Conchado, A., Dagani, K. R., Daher, B., Dekker, S. C., Delgado, R., Diuana, F. A., Doelman, J., Elshorbagy, A. A., Fan, C., Gaudioso, R., Gebrechorkos, S. H., Geli, H. M. E., Grubert, E., Huang, D., Huang, T., Ilyas, A., Ivakhnenko, A., Jewitt, G. P. W., dos Santos, M. J. F., Jones, J. L., Kellner, E., Krueger, E. H., Kumar, I., Lamontagne, J., Lansu, A., Lee, S., Li, R., Linares, P., Marazza, D., Mascari, M. P., McManamay, R. A., Meng, M., Mereu, S., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., Mohtar, R., Muhammad, A., Opejin, A. K., Pande, S., Parkinson, S., Payet-Burin, R., Ramdas, M., Ramos, E. P., Ray, S., Roberts, P., Sampedro, Sanders, K. T., Saray, M. H., Schmidt, J., Shanafield, M., Siddiqui, S., Suriano, M., Taniguchi, M., Trabucco, A., Tuninetti, M., Vinca, A., Weeser, B., White, D. D., Wild, T. B., Yadav, K., Yogeswaran, N., Yokohata, T., & Yue, Q.
Front. Environ. Sci., 10, 918085 (2022)
Assessing and projecting surface air temperature conditions required to sustain permafrost in Japan
Yokohata, T., Iwahana, G., Saito, K., Ishizaki, N. N., Matsushita, T., & Sueyoshi, T.
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 9:39 (2022)
Observations and Implications of Diurnal Climatology and Trends in Direct and Diffuse Solar Radiation over China
Wang, Y., Zhang, J., Trentmann, J., Fiedler, S., Yang, S., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Tanaka, K., Yuan, W., & Wild, M.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2022)
Editorial: ENSO Nonlinearity and Complexity: Features, Mechanisms, Impacts and Prediction
Ren, H.-L., Zhang, W., Lian, T., Xie, R., & Hayashi, M.
Front. Earth Sci., 10:967362 (2022)
The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change
Satoh, Y., Yoshimura, K., Pokhrel, Y., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Yokohata, T., Hanasaki, N., Wada, Y., Burek, P., Byers, E., Schmied, H. M., Gerten, D., Ostberg, S., Gosling, S. N., Boulange, J. E. S., & Oki, T.
Nature Communications, 13, 3287 (2022)
Comparing national greenhouse gas budgets reported in UNFCCC inventories against atmospheric inversions
Deng, Z., Ciais, P., Tzompa-Sosa, Z. A., Saunois, M., Qiu, C., Tan, C., Sun, T., Ke, P., Cui, Y., Tanaka, K., Lin, X., Thompson, R. L., Tian, H., Yao, Y., Huang, Y., Lauerwald, R., Jain, A. K., Xu, X., Bastos, A., Sitch, S., Palmer, P. I., Lauvaux, T., d'Aspremont, A., Giron, C., Benoit, A., Poulter, B., Chang, J., Petrescu, A. M. R., Davis, S. J., Liu, Z., Grassi, G., Albergel, C., Tubiello, F. N., Perugini, L., Peters, E., & Chevallier, F.
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675 (2022)
Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios
Melnikova, I., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Tanaka, T., Gasser, T., Hajima, T., Quilcaille, Y., Shiogama, H., Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., Vuichard, N., Yokohata, T., & Ciais, P.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794 (2022)
Assessment of CMIP6-based future climate projections selected for impact studies in Japan
Hayashi, M., & Shiogama, H.
SOLA (2022)
Impacts of precipitation modeling on cloud feedback in MIROC6
Hirota, N., Michibata, T., Shiogama, H., Ogura, T., & Suzuki, K.
Geophysical Research Letters, 49, 5 (2022)
Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes
Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Kim, H., & Hirota, N.
Nature, 602, 612–616 (2022)
Overall Structure of Climate Risk Interconnections and Importance of Climate Risk Communication (in Japanese)
Yokohata, T., Takahashi, K., Emori, S., Nishina, K., Tanaka, K., Iseri, Y., Honda, Y., Kiguchi, M., Kanae, S., Okamoto, A., Iwasaki, A., Maeda, N., & Oki, T.
環境科学会誌, 34, 5, 214-230 (2021)
Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations
Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Proistosescu, C., Andrews, T., Battisti, D. S., Forster, P. M., Paynter, D., Smith, C. J., & Shiogama, H.
Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL095778 (2021)
Climatic assessment of circum-Arctic permafrost zonation over the last 122 kyr
Saito, K., Okuno, J., Machiya, H., Iwahana, G., Ohno, H., & Yokohata, T.
Polar Science, 100765 (2021)
To Deliver Climate Change Projection Information to Users (in Japanese)
Takayabu, I., Hanasaki, N., Shiogama, H., Ishikawa, Y., Emori, S., Shimada, T., Sugisaki, H., Takahashi, K., Nakaegawa, T., Nakakita, E., Nishimori, M., Hashizume, M., Hatsushika, H., Matsui, T., Yamano, H., Yokoki, H., & Watanabe, M.
J. Japan Soc. Hydrol. and Water Resour., 34, 6, 377-385 (2021)
A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: a source of disagreement in future drought assessments
Satoh, Y., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N., Pokhrel, Y., Boulange, J. E. S., Burek, P., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Koutroulis, A., Schmied, H. M., Thiery, W., & Yokohata, T.
Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 104001 (2021)
Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan
Yokohata, T., Iwahana, G., Sone, T., Saito, K., Ishizaki, N. N., Kubo, T., Oguma, H., & Uchida, M.
Scientific Reports, 11, 15518 (2021)
Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013
Hirabayashi, Y., Alifu, H., Yamazaki, D., Imada, Y., Shiogama, H., & Kimura, Y.
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 8:36 (2021)
Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models
Hirota, N., Ogura, T., Shiogama, H., Caldwell, P., Watanabe, M., Kamae, Y., & Suzuki, K.
Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 074015 (2021)
Cost-effective implementation of the Paris Agreement using flexible greenhouse gas metrics
Tanaka, K., Boucher, O., Ciais, P., Johansson, D. J. A., & Morfeldt, J.
Sci. Adv., 7, eabf9020 (2021)
How many hot days and heavy precipitation days will grandchildren experience that break the records set in their grandparents’ lives?
Shiogama, H., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Takahashi, K., Kameyama, Y., & Emori, S.
Environ. Res. Commun., 3, 061002 (2021)
Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2°C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models
Melnikova, I., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Gasser, T., Quilcaille, Y., Shiogama, H., Tachiiri, K., Yokohata, T., & Tanaka, K.
Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001967 (2021)
Selecting CMIP6-Based Future Climate Scenarios for Impact and Adaptation Studies
Shiogama, H., Ishizaki, N. N., Hanasaki, N., Takahashi, K., Emori, S., Ito, R., Nakaegawa, T., Takayabu, I., Hijioka, Y., Takayabu, Y. N., & Shibuya, R.
SOLA, 17, 57-62 (2021)
Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change
Pokhrel, Y., Felfelani, F., Satoh, Y., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Gädeke, A., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Grillakis, M., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Kim, H., Koutroulis, A., Liu, J., Papadimitriou, L., Schewe, J., Schmied, H. M., Stacke, T., Telteu, C.-E., Thiery, W., Veldkamp, T., Zhao, F., & Wada, Y.
Nature Climate Change (2021)
Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period
Gillett N.P., Kirchmeier-Young, M., Ribes, A., Shiogama, H., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Gastineau, G., John, J. G., Li, L., Nazarenko, L., Rosenbloom, N., Seland, Ø., Wu, T., Yukimoto, S., & Ziehn, T.
Nature Climate Change (2021)
Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change
Boulange, J., Hanasaki, N., Yamazaki, D., & Pokhrel, Y.
Nature Communications, 12: 417 (2021)
Hourly Surface Observations Suggest Stronger Solar Dimming and Brightening at Sunrise and Sunset Over China
Wang, Y., Zhang, J., Sanchez‐Lorenzo, A., Tanaka, K., Trentmann, J., Yuan, W., & Wild, M.
Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091422 (2021)
Method Uncertainty Is Essential for Reliable Confidence Statements of Precipitation Projections
Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P. D., Allen, M. R., Betts, R. A., Huntingford, C., King, A. D., Sanderson, B. M., & Shiogama, H.
J. Climate, 34, 1227-1240 (2021)
Numerical model to simulate long-term soil organic carbon and ground ice budget with permafrost and ice sheets (SOC-ICE-v1.0)
Saito, K., Machiya, H., Iwahana, G., Yokohata, T., & Ohno, H.
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 521-542 (2021)
The northwestern Pacific warming record in August 2020 occurred under anthropogenic forcing
Hayashi, M., Shiogama, H., Emori, S., Ogura, T., & Hirota, N.
Geophysical Research Letters, 48(1), e2020GL090956 (2021)
Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds
Gädeke, A., Krysanova, V., Aryal, A., Chang, J., Grillakis, M., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Schaphoff, S., Schmied, H. M., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., & Thonicke, K.
Climatic Change, 163:1329-1351 (2020)
How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change
Krysanova,v., Zaherpour, J., Didovets, I., Gosling, S. N., Gerten, D., Hanasaki, N., Schmied, H. M., Pokhrel, Y., Satoh, Y., Tang, Q., & Wada, Y.
Climatic Change, 163:1353-1377 (2020)
Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) - a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management
Burek, P., Satoh, Y., Kahil, T., Tang, T., Greve, P., Smilovic, M., Guillaumot, L., Zhao, F., & Wada, Y.
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3267-3298 (2020)
Impact of air-sea coupling on the probability of occurrence of heat waves in Japan
Hasegawa, A., Imada, Y., Shiogama, H., Mori, M.,Tatebe, H., & Watanabe, M.
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 7:78 (2020)
Solar EV City concept: Building the next urban power and mobility systems
Kobashi, T., Jittrapirom, P., Yoshida, T., Hirano, Y., & Yamagata,Y.
Environ. Res. Lett. (2020)
Characteristics of Extreme Value Statistics of Annual Maximum Monthly Precipitation in East Asia Calculated Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity
Nakaegawa, T., Kobashi, T., & Kamahori, H.
Atmosphere,11(12), 1273 (2020)
Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model
Yokohata, T., Saito, K., Takata, K., Nitta, T., Satoh, Y., Hajima, T., Sueyoshi, T., & Iwahana, G.
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 7:69 (2020)
MIROC-INTEG-LAND version 1: a global biogeochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use chnge
Yokohata, T., Kinoshita, T., Sakurai, G., Pokhrel, Y., Ito, A., Okada, M., Satoh, Y., Kato, E., Nitta, T., Fujimori, S., Felfelani, F., Masaki, Y., Iizumi, T., Nishimori, M., Hanasaki, N., Takahashi, K., Yamagata, Y., & Emori, S.
Geoscience Model Development, 13, 4713-4747 (2020)
Mapping simulated circum-Arctic organic carbon, ground ice, and vulnerability of ice-rich permafrost to degradation
Saito, K., Machiya, H., Iwahana, G., Ohno, H., & Yokohata, T.
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 7, 31 (2020)
On the potential of “Photovoltaics + Electric vehicles” for deep decarbonization of Kyoto’s power systems: Techno-economic-social considerations
Kobashi, T., Yoshida, T., Yamagata, Y., Naito, K., Pfenninger, S., Say, K., Takeda, Y., Ahl, A., Yarime, M. & Hara, K.
Applied Energy 275, 115419 (2020)
Scalability of future climate changes across Japan examined with large-ensemble simulations at + 1.5 K, + 2 K, and + 4 K global warming levels
Nosaka, M., Ishii, M., Shiogama, H., Mizuta, R., Murata, A., Kawase, H. & Sasaki, H.
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 7: 27 (2020)
Selecting future climate projections of surface solar radiation in Japan
Shiogama, H., Ito, R., Imada, Y., Nakaegawa, T., Hirota, N., Ishizaki, N. N., Takahashi, K., Takayabu I. & Emori, S.
SOLA 16, 75-79 (2020)
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Nino events occur
Shiogama, H., Hirata, R., Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Ishizaki, N., Chatani, S., Watanabe, M., Mitchell, D. & Lo Y. T. E.
Earth System Dynamics 11, 435-445 (2020)
Evaluation of two bias-correction methods for gridded climate scenarios over Japan
Ishizaki, N. N., Nishimori, M., Iizumi, T., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N. & Takahashi, K.
SOLA 16, 80-85 (2020)
Uncertainties in climate change projections covered by the ISIMIP and CORDEX model subsets from CMIP5
Ito, R., Shiogama, H., Nakaegawa, T. & Takayabu, I.
Geoscientific Model Development 13, 859-872 (2020)
Techno-economic assessment of photovoltaics plus electric vehicles towards household-sector decarbonization in Kyoto and Shenzhen by the year 2030
Kobashi, T., Say, K., Wang, J., Yarime, M., Wang, D., Yoshida, T. & Yamagata, Y.
Journal of Cleaner Production 253, 119933 (2020)
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change
Shiogama, H., Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Murakami, D., Takahashi, K., Tanaka, K., Emori, S., Kubota, I., Abe, M., Imada, Y., Watanabe, M., Mitchell, D., Schaller, N., Sillmann, J., Fischer, E., Scinocca, J. F., Bethke, I., Lierhammer, L., Takakura, J., Trautmann, T., Doll, P., Ostberg, S., Schmied, H. M., Saeed, F. & Schleussner, C.-F.
Environmental Research Letters 14, 124022 (2019)
Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways
Takakura, J., Fujimori, S., Hanasaki, N., Hasegawa, T., Hirabayashi, Y., Honda, Y., Iizumi, T., Kumano, N., Park, C., Shen, Z., Takahashi, K., Tamura, M., Tanoue, M., Tsuchida, K., Yokoki, H., Zhou, Q., Oki, T. & Hijioka, Y.
Nature Climate Change 9, 737-741 (2019)
The July 2018 high temperature event in Japan could not have happened without human-induced global warming
Imada, Y., Watanabe, M., Kawase, H., Shiogama, H. & Arai, M.
Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (SOLA) (2019)
Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project
Stone, D. A., Christidis, N., Folland, C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Perlwitz, J., Shiogama, H., Wehner, M. F., Wolski, P., Cholia, S., Krishnan, H., Murray, D., Angelil, O., Beyerle, U., Ciavarella, A., Dittus, A., Quan, X.-W. & Tadross, M.
Weather and Climate Extremes 24, 100206 (2019)
Evaluation and Future Projection of Chinese Precipitation Extremes Using Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations
Duan, W., Hanasaki, N., Shiogama, H., Chen, Y., Zou, S., Nover, D., Zhou, B. & Wang, Y.
Journal of Climate 32, 2169-2183 (2019)
Forced summer stationary waves: the opposing efects of direct radiative forcing and sea surface warming
Baker, H. S., Woollings, T., Mbengue, C., Allen, M. R., O’Reilly, C. H., Shiogama, H. & Sparrow, S.
Climate Dynamics (2019)
Asserting the climate benefits of the coal-to-gas shift across temporal and spatial scales
Tanaka, K., Cavalett, O., Collins, W. J. & Cherubini, F.
Nature Climate Change 9, 389-396 (2019)
Global advanced bioenergy potential under environmental protection policies and societal transformation measures
Wu, W., Hasegawa, T., Ohashi, H., Hanasaki, N., Liu, J., Matsui, T., Fujimori, S., Masui, T. & Takahashi, K.
GCB Bioenergy (2019)
State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Schewe, J., Gosling, S. N., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H. K., Seneviratne, S. I., van Vliet, M. T. H., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Buchner, M., Carozza, D. A., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., De Wit, A., Eddy, T. D., Folberth, C., Frieler, K., Friend, A. D., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Muller, C., Schmied, H. M., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T. A. M., Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp, J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D. P., Volkholz, J., Wang, X. & Warszawski, L.
Nature Communications 10, 1005 (2019)
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5°C to a 2°C warmer world
Madakumbura, G. D., Kim, H., Utsumi, N., Shiogama, H., Fischer, E. M., Seland, O., Scinocca, J. F., Mitchell, D. M., Hirabayashi, Y. & Oki, T.
Scientific Reports 9: 3483 (2019)
The Effects of Natural Variability and Climate Change on the Record Low Sunshine over Japan During August 2017
Takahashi, C., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Kosaka, Y., Mori, M., Arai, M., Kamae, Y. & Watanabe, M.
in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2018)
Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981-2010 compared with preindustrial levels
Iizumi, T., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Hanasaki, N., Takikawa, H. & Nishimori, M.
International Journal of Climatology (2018)
Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets
Wartenburger, R., Seneviratne, S. I., Hirschi, M., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C., Gosling, S. N., Gudmundsson, L., Henrot, A., Hickler, H., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Leng, G., Liu, J., Liu, X., Masaki, Y., Morfopoulos, C., Muller, C., Schmied, H. M., Nishina, K., Orth, R., Pokhrel, Y. N., Pugh, T., Satoh, Y., Schaphoff, S., Schmid, E., Sheffield, J., Stacke, T., Steinkamp, J., Tang, O., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Wang, X., Weedon, G. P., Yang, H. & Zhou, T.
Environmental Research Letters 13, 075001 (2018)
Climate effects of non-compliant Volkswagen diesel cars
Tanaka, K., Lund, M. T., Aamaas, B. & Berntsen, T.
Environmental Research Letters 13, 044020 (2018)
The Paris Agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets
Tanaka, K. & O’Neill, B. C.
Nature Climate Change 8, 319-324 (2018)
Risk implications of long-term global climate goals: overall conclusions of the ICA-RUS project
Emori, S., Takahashi, K., Yamagata, Y., Kanae, S., Mori, S. & Fujigaki, Y.
Sustainability Science 13, 279-289 (2018)
Integrated climate assessment: risks, uncertainties, and society (ICA-RUS)
Emori, S. & Takahashi, K.
Sustainability Science 13, 275-277 (2018)
Decadal shifts in wind patterns reduced continental outflow and suppressed ozone trend in the 2010s in the lower troposphere over Japan
Okamoto, S., Tanimoto, H., Hirota, N., Ikeda, K. & Akimoto, H.
J. Geophys. Res-Atmos. 123 (2018)
Global freshwater availability below normal conditions and population impactunder 1.5 and 2°C stabilization scenarios
Liu, W, Lim, W. H., Sun, F., Mitchell, D., Wang, H., Chen, D., Bethke, I., Shiogama, H. & Fischer, E.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 45 (2018)
Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity
Watanabe, M., Kamae, Y., Shiogama, H., DeAngelis, A. M. & Suzuki, K.
Nature Climate Change (2018)
Multi-model event attribution of the summer 2013 heat wave in Korea
Kim, Y.-H., Min, S.-K., Stone, D. A., Shiogama, H. & Wolski, P.
Weather and Climate Extremes 20, 33-4 (2018)
Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics
Lee, D., Min, S-K., Fischer, E., Shiogama, H., Bethke, I., Lierhammer, L. & Scinocca, J. F.
Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 044033 (2018)
Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5°C and 2°C
Saeed, F., Bethke, I., Fischer, E., Legutke, S., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. & Schleussner, C.-F.
Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 064024 (2018)
Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals
Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Schaller, N., Allen, M., Ebi, K. L., Fischer, E., Gasparrini, A., Harrington, L., Kharin, V., Shiogama, H., Sillmann, J., Sippel, S. & Vardoulakis, S.
Nature Climate Change (2018)
Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5°C world
Baker, H., Millar, R., Karoly, D., Beyerle, U., Guillod, B., Mitchell, D., Shiogama, H., Sparrow, S., Woollings, T. & Allen, M.
Nature Climate Change (2018)
The influences of El Nino and Arctic sea-ice on the QBO disruption in February 2016
Hirota, N., Shiogama, H., Akiyoshi, H., Ogura, T., Takahashi, M., Kawatani, Y., Kimoto, M. & Mori, M.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1:10 (2018)
Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming and implications for regional impacts
Li, C., Michel, C., Graff, L. S., Bethke, I., Zappa, G., Bracegirdle, T. J., Fischer, E., Harvey, B. J., Iversen, T., King, M. P., Krishnan, H., Lierhammer, L., Mitchell, D., Scinocca, J., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. A. & Wettstein, J. J.
Earth System Dynamics 9, 359-382 (2018)
Roles of shallow convective moistening in the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Hirota, N., Ogura, T., Tatebe, H., Shiogama, H., Kimoto, M. & Watanabe, M.
J. Climate 31, 3033-3047 (2018)
Roles of intraseasonal disturbances and diabatic heating in the East Asian jet stream variabilities associated with the East Asian winter monsoon
Hirota, N., Ohta, M., Yamashita, Y. & Takahashi, M.
J. Climate 31, 2871-2887 (2018)
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
Wehner, M., Stone, D., Mitchell, D., Shiogama, H., Fischer, E., Graff, L. S., Kharin, V. V., Lierhammer, L., Sanderson, B. & Krishnan, H.
Earth Syst. Dynam. 9, 299-311 (2018)
Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2°C warmer worlds
Liu, W., Sun, F., Lim, W. H., Zhang, J., Wang, H., Shiogama, H. & Zhang, Y.
Earth Syst. Dynam. 9, 267-283 (2018)
Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land
Hirsch, A. L., Guillod, B. P., Seneviratne, S. I., Beyerle, U., Boysen, L. R., Brovkin, V., Davin, E. L., Doelman, J. C., Kim, H., Mitchell, D. M., Nitta, T., Shiogama, H., Sparrow, S., Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D. P. & Wilson, S.
Earth’s Future 6 (2018)
Reconciliation of top-down and bottom-up CO2 fluxes in Siberia larch forest
Takata, K., Patra, P. K., Kotani, A., Mori, J., Belikov, D., Ichii, K., Saeki, T., Ohta, T., Saito, K., Ueyama, M., Ito, A., Maksyutov, S., Miyazaki, S., Burke, E. J., Ganshin, A., Iijima, Y., Ise, T., Machiya, H., Maximov, T. C., Niwa, Y., O’ishi, R., Park, H., Sasai, T., Sato, H., Tei, S., Zhuravlev, R., Machida, T., Sugimoto, A. & Aoki, S.
Environmental Research Letters 12, 125012 (2017)
Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM
Abe, M., Takata, K.., Kawamiya, M. & Watanabe, S.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122, 9245-9261 (2017)
Conceptualizing dimensions and characteristics of urban resilience: Insights from a co-design process
Sharifi, A., Chelleri, L., Fox-Lent, C., Grafakos, S., Pathak, M., Olazabal, M., Moloney, S., Yumagulova, L. & Yamagata, Y.
Sustainability 9, 1032 (2017)
Reconstruction of spatially detailed global map of NH4+ and NO3- application in synthetic nitrogen fertilizer
Nishina, K., Ito, A., Hanasaki, N. & Hayashi, S.
Earth System Science Data 9, 149-162 (2017)
On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources
Tanaka, A., Takahashi, K., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N., Masaki, Y., Ito, A., Noda, H., Hijioka, Y. & Emori, S.
Climatic Change 141, 775-782 (2017)
Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk
Paik, S., Min, S.-K., Kim, Y.-H., Kim, B.-M., Shiogama, H. & Heo, J.
J. Climate 30, 4693-4703 (2017)
Attribution of the July-August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
Ma, S., Zhou, T., Stone, D. A., Angelil, O. & Shiogama, H.
Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 054020 (2017)
Downscaling Global Emissions and Its Implications Derived from Climate Model Experiments
Fujimori, S., Abe, M., Kinoshita, T., Hasegawa, T., Kawase, H., Kushida, K., Masui, T., Oka, K., Shiogama, H., Takahashi, K., Tatebe, H. & Yoshikawa, M.
PLOS ONE 12 (1), e0169733-e0169733 (2017)
Global dimming and urbanization: Did stronger negative SSR trends collocate with regions of population growth?
Imamovic, A., Tanaka, K., Folini, D. & Wild, M.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, 2719-2725 (2016)
Enhancing life cycle impact assessment from climate science: Review of recent findings and recommendations for application to LCA
Levasseur, A., Cavalett, O., Fuglestvedt, J., Gasser, T., Johansson, D., Jorgensen, S., Raugei, M., Reisinger, A., Shivley, G., Stromman, A., Tanaka, K. & Cherubini, F.
Ecological Indicators 71, 163-174 (2016)
Amending the inadequacy of a single indicator for climate impact analyses
Cherubini, F. & Tanaka, K.
Environmental Science & Technology 50, 12530-12531 (2016)
Bridging the gap between impact assessment methods and climate science
Cherubini, F., Fuglestvedt, J., Gasser, T., Reisinger, A., Cavalett, O., Johansson, D. J. A., Jorgensen, S. V., Huijbregts, M., Raugei, M., Shivley, G., Stromman, A. H., Tanaka, K. & Levasseur, A.
Environmental Science & Policy 64, 129-140 (2016)
Urban infrastructure choices structure climate solutions
Creutzig, F., Agoston, P., Minx, J. C., Canadell, J. G., Andrew, R. M., Le Quere, C., Peters, G. P., Sharifi, A., Yamagata, Y. & Dhakal, S.
Nature Climate Change 6, 1054-1056 (2016)
Research priorities for negative emissions
Fuss, S., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Peters, G. P., Smith, P., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D. P., Canadell, J. G., Jackson, R. B., Milne, J., Moreira, J. R., Nakicenovic, N., Sharifi, A. & Yamagata, Y.
Environmental Research Letters 11, 115007 (2016)
Is global dimming and brightening in Japan limited to urban areas?
Tanaka, K., Ohmura, A., Folini, D., Wild, M. & Ohkawara, N.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, 13969-14001 (2016)
Lower-tropospheric mixing as a constraint on cloud feedback in a multiparameter multiphysics ensemble
Kamae, Y., Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Ogura, T., Yokohata, T. & Kimoto, M.
Journal of Climate 29, 6259-6275 (2016)
Principles and criteria for assessing urban energy resilience: A literature review
Sharifi, A. & Yamagata, Y.
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 60, 1654-1677 (2016)
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6
Gillett, N. P., Shiogama, H., Funke, B., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Matthes, K., Santer, B. D., Stone, D. & Tebaldi, C.
Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3685-3697 (2016)
Attributing historical changes in probabilities of record-breaking daily temperature and precipitation extreme events
Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Mori, M., Mizuta, R., Stone, D., Yoshida, K., Arakawa, O., Ikeda, M., Takahashi, C., Arai, M., Ishii, M., Watanabe, M. & Kimoto, M.
SOLA 12, 225-231 (2016)
Realizing the impacts of a 1.5°C warmer world
Mitchell, D., James, R., Forster, P. M., Betts, R. A., Shiogama, H. & Allen, M. R.
Nature Climate Change (2016)
Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections
Shiogama, H., Stone, D., Emori, S., Takahashi, K., Mori, S., Maeda, A., Ishizaki, Y. & Allen, M. R.
Scientific Reports 6:18903 (2016)