力学・化学・放射過程など諸過程の統合モデリングに基づく地球環境システムとしての気候変動の解明と予測を行います。
気候モデリング・解析研究室
研究スタッフ
研究プロジェクト
研究成果
発表論文
The northwestern Pacific warming record in August 2020 occurred under anthropogenic forcing
Hayashi, M., Shiogama, H., Emori, S., Ogura, T., & Hirota, N.
Geophysical Research Letters, 48(1), e2020GL090956 (2021)
Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry-climate models weighted by model performance and independence
Amos, M., Young, P. J., Hosking, J. S., Lamarque, J.-F., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A. T., Bekki, S., Deushi, M., Jockel, P., Kinnison, D., Kirner, O., Kunze, M., Marchand, M., Plummer, D. A., Saint-Martin, D., Sudo, K., Tilmes, S., & Yamashita, Y.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, 9961-9977 (2020)
Chlorine partitioning near the polar vortex edge observed with ground-based FTIR and satellites at Syowa Station, Antarctica, in 2007 and 2011
Nakajima, H., Murata, I., Nagahama, Y., Akiyoshi, H., Saeki, K., Kinase, T., Takeda, M., Tomikawa, Y., Dupuy, E. & Jones, N. B.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, 1043-1074 (2020)
The effect of atmospheric nudging on the stratospheric residual circulation in chemistry-climate models
Chrysanthou, A., Maycock, A. C., Chipperfield, M. P., Dhomse, S., Garny, H., Kinnison, D., Akiyoshi, H., Deushi, M., Garcia, R. R., Jockel, P., Kirner, O., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Tanaka, T. Y., Visioni, D. & Yamashita, Y.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19, 11559-11586 (2019)
Responses of Clouds and Large‐Scale Circulation to Global Warming Evaluated From Multidecadal Simulations Using a Global Nonhydrostatic Model
Noda, A. T., Kodama, C., Yamada, Y., Satoh, M., Ogura, T. & Ohno, T.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2019)
Clear-sky ultraviolet radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative
Lamy, K., Portafaix, T., Josse, B., Brogniez, C., Godin-Beekmann, S., Bencherif, H., Revell, L., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Hegglin, M. I., Jockel, P., Kirner, O., Liley, B., Mareca, V., Morgenstern, O., Stenke, A., Zeng, G., Abraham, N. L., Archibald, A. T., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Di Genova, G., Deushi, M., Dhomse, S. S., Hu, R.-M., Kinnison, D., Kotkamp, M., McKenzie, R., Michou, M., O’Connor, F. M., Oman, L. D., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J. A., Rozanov, E., Saint-Martin, D., Sudo, K., Tanaka, T. Y., Daniele Visioni, D. & Yoshida, K.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19, 10087-10110 (2019)
Analysis of the Ozone Reduction Event Over the Southern Tip of South America in November 2009
Akiyoshi, H., Kadowaki, M., Nakamura, H., Sugita, T., Hirooka, T., Harada, Y. & Mizuno, A.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 123, 12,523-12,542 (2018)
The Effects of Natural Variability and Climate Change on the Record Low Sunshine over Japan During August 2017
Takahashi, C., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Kosaka, Y., Mori, M., Arai, M., Kamae, Y. & Watanabe, M.
in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2018)
Decadal shifts in wind patterns reduced continental outflow and suppressed ozone trend in the 2010s in the lower troposphere over Japan
Okamoto, S., Tanimoto, H., Hirota, N., Ikeda, K. & Akimoto, H.
J. Geophys. Res-Atmos. 123 (2018)
Tropospheric ozone in CCMI models and Gaussian process emulation to understand biases in the SOCOLv3 chemistry-climate model
Revell, L. E., Stenke, A., Tummon, F., Feinberg, A., Rozanov, E., Peter, T., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A. T., Butchart, N., Deushi, M., Jockel, P., Kinnison, D., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O’Connor, F. M., Oman, L, D., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Schofield, R., Stone, K., Tilmes, S., Visioni, D., Yamashita, Y. & Zeng, G.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 18, 16155-16172 (2018)
Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends
Maycock, A. C., Randel, W. J., Steiner, A. K., Karpechko, A. Y., Christy, J., Saunders, R., Thompson, D. E. J., Zou, C.-Z., Chrysanthou, A., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A. T., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Dhomse, S., Genova, G. D., Jockel, P., Kinnison, D. E., Kirner, O., Ladstadter, F., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O’Connor, F., Oman, L., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Visioni, D., Yamashit, Y. & Zeng, G.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 9919-9933 (2018)
Global freshwater availability below normal conditions and population impactunder 1.5 and 2°C stabilization scenarios
Liu, W, Lim, W. H., Sun, F., Mitchell, D., Wang, H., Chen, D., Bethke, I., Shiogama, H. & Fischer, E.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 45 (2018)
Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity
Watanabe, M., Kamae, Y., Shiogama, H., DeAngelis, A. M. & Suzuki, K.
Nature Climate Change (2018)
Crop production losses associated with anthropogenic climate change for 1981-2010 compared with preindustrial levels
Iizumi, T., Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Hanasaki, N., Takikawa, H. & Nishimori, M.
International Journal of Climatology (2018)
The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone - Part 2: Analysis of global models
Maycock, A. C., Matthes, K., Tegtmeier, S., Schmidt, H., Thieblemont, R., Hood, L., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Deushi, M., Jockel, P., Kirner, O., Kunze, M., Marchand, M., Marsh, D. R., Michou, M., Plummer, D., Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Yamashita, Y. & Yoshida, K.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 18, 11323-11343 (2018)
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
Ayarzaguena, B., Polvani, L. M., Langematz, U., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Butchart, N., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Hardiman, S. C., Jockel, P., Klekociuk, A., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O’Connor, F. M., Oman, L. D., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L., Rozanov, E., Saint-Martin, D., Scinocca, J., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Yamashita, Y., Yoshida, K. & Zeng, G.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 18, 11277-11287 (2018)
Multi-model event attribution of the summer 2013 heat wave in Korea
Kim, Y.-H., Min, S.-K., Stone, D. A., Shiogama, H. & Wolski, P.
Weather and Climate Extremes 20, 33-4 (2018)
Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics
Lee, D., Min, S-K., Fischer, E., Shiogama, H., Bethke, I., Lierhammer, L. & Scinocca, J. F.
Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 044033 (2018)
Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5°C and 2°C
Saeed, F., Bethke, I., Fischer, E., Legutke, S., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. & Schleussner, C.-F.
Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 064024 (2018)
Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals
Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Schaller, N., Allen, M., Ebi, K. L., Fischer, E., Gasparrini, A., Harrington, L., Kharin, V., Shiogama, H., Sillmann, J., Sippel, S. & Vardoulakis, S.
Nature Climate Change (2018)
Stratospheric injection of brominated very short-lived substances: Aircraft observations in the Western Pacific and representation in global models
Wales, P. A., Salawitch, R. J., Nicely, J. M., Anderson, D. C., Canty, T. P., Baider, S., Dix, B., Koenig, T. K., Volkamer, R., Chen, D., Huey, L. G., Tanner, D. J., Cuevas, C. A., Fernandez, R. P., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F., Saiz-Lopez, A., Atlas, E. L., Hall, S. R., Navarro, M. A., Pan, L. L., Schauffler, S. M., Stell, M., Tilmes, S., Ullmann, K., Weinheimer, A. J., Akiyoshi, H., Chipperfield, M. P., Deushi, M., Dhomse, S. S., Feng, W., Graf, P., Hossaini, R., Jockel, P., Mancini, E., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Oman, L. D., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Saint-Martin, D., Schofield, R., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Visioni, D., Yamashita, Y. & Zeng, G.
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123, 5690-5719 (2018)
Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models
Son, S.-W., Han, B.-R., Garfinkel, C., Kim, S.-Y., Park, R., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Dhomse, S. S., Hardiman, S. C., Jockel, P., Kinnison, D., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O’Connor, F. M., Oman, L. D., Plummer, D. A., Pozzer, A., Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Tilmes, S., Yamashita, Y. & Zeng, G.
Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 054024 (2018)
Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations
Orbe, C., Yang, H., Waugh, D. W., Zeng, G., Morgenstern, O., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F., Tilmes, S., Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J. F., Josse, B., Marecal, V., Jockel, P., Oman, L. D., Strahan, S. E., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T. Y., Yoshida, K., Akiyoshi, H., Yamashita, Y., Stenke, A., Revell, L., Sukhodolov, T., Rozanov, E., Pitari, G., Visioni, D., Stone, K. A. & Schofield, R.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 18, 7217-7235 (2018)
Estimates of Ozone Return Dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Simulations
Dhomse, S., Kinnison, D., Chipperfield, M. P., Cionni, I., Hegglin, M., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A T., Bednarz, E. M., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Frith, S., Hardiman, S. C., Hassler, B., Horowitz, L. W., Hu, R.-M., Jockel, P., Josse, B., Kirner, O., Kremser, S., Langematz, U., Lewis, J., Marchand, M., Lin, M., Mancini, E., Marecal, V., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O’Connor, F. M., Oman, L., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Pyle, J. A., Revell, L. E., Rozanov, E., Schofield, R., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Sudo, K., Tilmes, S., Visioni, D., Yamashita, Y. & Zeng, G.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 18, 8409-8438 (2018)
Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5°C world
Baker, H., Millar, R., Karoly, D., Beyerle, U., Guillod, B., Mitchell, D., Shiogama, H., Sparrow, S., Woollings, T. & Allen, M.
Nature Climate Change (2018)
The influences of El Nino and Arctic sea-ice on the QBO disruption in February 2016
Hirota, N., Shiogama, H., Akiyoshi, H., Ogura, T., Takahashi, M., Kawatani, Y., Kimoto, M. & Mori, M.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1:10 (2018)
Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming and implications for regional impacts
Li, C., Michel, C., Graff, L. S., Bethke, I., Zappa, G., Bracegirdle, T. J., Fischer, E., Harvey, B. J., Iversen, T., King, M. P., Krishnan, H., Lierhammer, L., Mitchell, D., Scinocca, J., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. A. & Wettstein, J. J.
Earth System Dynamics 9, 359-382 (2018)
Roles of shallow convective moistening in the eastward propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Hirota, N., Ogura, T., Tatebe, H., Shiogama, H., Kimoto, M. & Watanabe, M.
J. Climate 31, 3033-3047 (2018)
Roles of intraseasonal disturbances and diabatic heating in the East Asian jet stream variabilities associated with the East Asian winter monsoon
Hirota, N., Ohta, M., Yamashita, Y. & Takahashi, M.
J. Climate 31, 2871-2887 (2018)
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
Wehner, M., Stone, D., Mitchell, D., Shiogama, H., Fischer, E., Graff, L. S., Kharin, V. V., Lierhammer, L., Sanderson, B. & Krishnan, H.
Earth Syst. Dynam. 9, 299-311 (2018)
Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2C°C warmer worlds
Liu, W., Sun, F., Lim, W. H., Zhang, J., Wang, H., Shiogama, H. & Zhang, Y.
Earth Syst. Dynam. 9, 267-283 (2018)
Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land
Hirsch, A. L., Guillod, B. P., Seneviratne, S. I., Beyerle, U., Boysen, L. R., Brovkin, V., Davin, E. L., Doelman, J. C., Kim, H., Mitchell, D. M., Nitta, T., Shiogama, H., Sparrow, S., Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D. P. & Wilson, S.
Earth’s Future 6 (2018)
Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations
Morgenstern, O., Stone, K. A., Schofield, R., Akiyoshi, H., Yamashita, Y., Kinnison, D. E., Garcia, R. R., Sudo, K., Plummer, D. A., Scinocca, J., Oman, L. D., Manyin, M. E., Zeng, G., Rozanov, E., Stenke, A., Revell, L. E., Pitari, G., Mancini, E., Di Genova, G., Visioni, D., Dhomse, S. S. & Chipperfield, M. P.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 18, 1091-1114 (2018)
Comparison of ozone profiles from DIAL, MLS, and chemical transport model simulations over Rio Gallegos, Argentina, during the spring Antarctic vortex breakup, 2009
Sugita, T., Akiyoshi, H., Wolfram, E., Salvador, J., Ohyama, H. & Mizuno, A.
Atmos. Meas. Tech. 10, 4947-4964 (2017)
Resolution Dependency of Numerically Simulated Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport Associated with Mid-Latitude Closed Cyclones in Early Spring around Japan
Yamashita, Y., Takigawa, M., Ishijima, K., Akiyoshi, H., Kodama, C., Yashiro, H. & Satoh, M.
SOLA 13, 186-191 (2017)
Tagged tracer simulations of black carbon in the Arctic: transport, source contributions, and budget
Ikeda, K., Tanimoto, H., Sugita, T., Akiyoshi, H., Kanaya, Y., Zhu, C. & Taketani, F.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 17, 10515-10533 (2017)
Tropical circulation and precipitation response to ozone depletion and recovery
Bronnimann, S., Jacques-Coper, M., Rozanov, E., Fischer, A. M., Morgenstern, O., Zeng, G., Akiyoshi, H. & Yamashita, Y.
Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 064011 (2017)
Attributing Causes of 2015 Record Minimum Sea-Ice Extent in the Sea of Okhotsk
Paik, S., Min, S.-K., Kim, Y.-H., Kim, B.-M., Shiogama, H. & Heo, J.
J. Climate 30, 4693-4703 (2017)
Attribution of the July-August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
Ma, S., Zhou, T., Stone, D. A., Angelil, O. & Shiogama, H.
Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 054020 (2017)
Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)
Morgenstern, O, Hegglin, M. I., Rozanov, E., O’Connor, F. M., Abraham, N. L., Akiyoshi, H., Archibald, A. T., Bekki, S., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Deushi, M., Dhomse, S. S., Garcia, R. R., Hardiman, S. C., Horowitz, L. W., Jockel, P., Josse, B., Kinnison, D., Lin, M. Y., Mancini, E., Manyin, M. E., Marchand, M., Marecal, V., Michou, M., Oman, L. D., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L. E., Saint-Martin, D., Schofield, R., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Sudo, K., Tanaka, T. Y., Tilmes, S., Yamashita, Y., Yoshida, K. & Zeng, G.
Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 639-671 (2017)
The recent increase of atmospheric methane from 10 years of ground-based NDACC FTIR observations since 2005
Bader, W., Bovy, B., Conway, S., Strong, K., Smale, D., Turner, A. J., Blumenstock, T., Boone, C., Coen, M. C. Coulon, A., Garcia, O., Griffith, D. W. T., Hase, F., Hausmann, P., Jones, N., Krummel, P., Murata, I., Morino, I., Nakajima, H., O’Doherty, S., Paton-Walsh, C., Robinson, J., Sandrin, R., Schneider, M., Servais, C., Sussmann, R. & Mahieu, E.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 17, 2255-2277 (2017)
On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources
Tanaka, A., Takahashi, K., Shiogama, H., Hanasaki, N., Masaki, Y., Ito, A., Noda, H., Hijioka, Y. & Emori, S.
Climatic Change 141, 775-782 (2017)
Downscaling Global Emissions and Its Implications Derived from Climate Model Experiments
Fujimori, S., Abe, M., Kinoshita, T., Hasegawa, T., Kawase, H., Kushida, K., Masui, T., Oka, K., Shiogama, H., Takahashi, K., Tatebe, H. & Yoshikawa, M.
PLOS ONE 12 (1), e0169733-e0169733 (2017)
成層圏化学モデルの進展とオゾン層の研究
Determining an effective UV radiation exposure time for vitamin D synthesis in the skin without risk to health: Simplified Estimations from UV observations
Miyauchi, M. & Nakajima, H.
Photochemistry and Photobiology 92(6) 863-869 (2016)
The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6
Gillett, N. P., Shiogama, H., Funke, B., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Matthes, K., Santer, B. D., Stone, D. & Tebaldi, C.
Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3685-3697 (2016)
Lower-tropospheric mixing as a constraint on cloud feedback in a multiparameter multiphysics ensemble
Kamae, Y., Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M., Ogura, T., Yokohata, T. & Kimoto, M.
Journal of Climate 29, 6259-6275 (2016)
An evaluation of IASI-NH3 with ground-based Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy measurements
Dammers, E., Palm, M., Van Damme, M., Vigouroux, C., Smale, D., Conway, S., Toon, G. C., Jones, N., Nussbaumer, E., Warneke, T., Petri, C, Clarisse, L., Clerbaux, C., Hermans, C., Lutsch, E., Strong, K., Hannigan, J. W., Nakajima, H., Morino, I., Herrera, B., Stremme, W., Grutter, M., Schaap, M., Kruit, R. J. W., Notholt, J., Coheur, P.-F. & Erisman, J. W.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 16, 10351-10368 (2016)
Attributing historical changes in probabilities of record-breaking daily temperature and precipitation extreme events
Shiogama, H., Imada, Y., Mori, M., Mizuta, R., Stone, D., Yoshida, K., Arakawa, O., Ikeda, M., Takahashi, C., Arai, M., Ishii, M., Watanabe, M. & Kimoto, M.
SOLA 12, 225-231 (2016)
Evaluation of the inter-annual variability of stratospheric chemical composition in chemistry-climate models using ground-based multi species time series
Poulain, V., Bekki, S., Marchand, M., Chipperfield, M. P., Khodri, M., Dhomse, S., Bodeker, G. E., Toumi, R., De Maziere, M., Pommereau, J.-P., Pazmino, A., Goutail, F., Plummer, D., Rozanov, E., Mancini, E., Akiyoshi, H., Lamarque, J.-F. & Austin, J.
J. Atmos. and Solar-Terrestrial Phys 145, 61-84 (2016)
Realizing the impacts of a 1.5°C warmer world
Mitchell, D., James, R., Forster, P. M., Betts, R. A., Shiogama, H. & Allen, M. R.
Nature Climate Change (2016)
Comparison of XH2O Retrieved from GOSAT Short-Wavelength Infrared Spectra with Observations from the TCCON Network
Dupuy, E., Morino, I., Deutscher, N. M., Yoshida, Y., Uchino, O., Connor, B. J., De Maziere, M., Griffith, D. W. T., Hase, F., Heikkinen, P., Hillyard, P. W., Iraci, L. T., Kawakami, S., Kivi, R., Matsunaga, T., Notholt, J., Petri, C., Podolske, J. R., Pollard, D. F., Rettinger, M., Roehl, C. M., Sherlock, V., Sussmann, R., Toon, G. C., Velazco, V. A., Warneke, T., Wennberg, P. O., Wunch, D. & Yokota, T.
Remote Sens. 8, 414 (2016)
Is the Brewer-Dobson circulation increasing, or moving upward?
Oberlander-Hayn, S., Gerber, E. P., Abalichin, J., Akiyoshi, H., Kerschbaumer, A., Kubin, A., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Meul, S., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O. & Oman, L. D.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 1772-1779 (2016)
A nudged chemistry-climate model simulation of chemical constituent distribution at northern high-latitude stratosphere observed by SMILES and MLS during the 2009/2010 stratospheric sudden warming
Akiyoshi, H., Nakamura, T., Miyasaka, T., Shiotani, M. & Suzuki, M.
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 121, 1361-1380 (2016)
Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections
Shiogama, H., Stone, D., Emori, S., Takahashi, K., Mori, S., Maeda, A., Ishizaki, Y. & Allen, M. R.
Scientific Reports 6:18903 (2016)